Baseball analyst, suthor, podcast host, statistician, and Marine Corps Veteran Rayn Spaeder joined us to talk all things baseball. We touch on some baseball statistics and the craziness of the 2020 MLB season. Ryan gives his MLB postseason predictions and how this 2020 playoff baseball format was actually his idea! Follow Ryan on Twitter @theaceofspaeder and check out his website Theaceofspaeder.com for his podcast and book information.
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Transcript: EP61 – Analyst Ryan Spaeder Joins the Show to Discuss Playoff Baseball
Dan Blewett: All right. Welcome back. This is the morning brushback episode 61. We’ve got an awesome guest today and a very I’ll give you, I’ll give you a plug today. Bobby. You’ve been a good cohost three 60 episodes. So we’ve got a good cohost, great guests who we got here today, Bob. We’ve got a
Bobby Stevens: Ryan Spader, uh, of what I would consider Twitter fame, big Twitter, following the stats guy on baseball stats guy on Twitter, Ryan, how are you?
Ryan Spaeder: Hey, I’m doing great, gentlemen. I really appreciate you guys having me on just looking forward. Thoughts of baseball.
Dan Blewett: Yeah. So let’s talk a little bit about how you, uh, I mean, you, you seem pretty wide range cause you obviously have two podcasts. I think Bob and I are both listened this past week. Um, you know, the, the walk-off and, uh, your other one is, is the best baseball podcast that’s still running.
[00:01:00] Ryan Spaeder: Yeah. So they were both, um, the best baseball podcast I did with Holden Cushner two years ago, we actually, uh, developed a pretty good. Decent listening, wherever 10,000 listeners. And then unfortunately we had a CanCan because he moved to a Denver. We were both doing it out of, um, Arlington where him and I worked close by.
We were able to get together once, twice a week and filming episode. And then, um, we, uh, we can’t get last year and then run it back under the name, the walk-off with blue wire blue wire had, um, picked us up for whatever reason. They thought our podcasts was good stuff and they asked us to bring it back.
So we did.
Dan Blewett: That’s cool. What is a, so what is blue wire as two guys who are, are not sponsored, not picked up by anybody. Uh, what is, what does blue wire do? How do they support your show? Like what’s their media company, like.
Ryan Spaeder: Uh, so they are the producers. They, um, uh, I guess what they do is they have a bunch of ’em various sports politics, uh, [00:02:00] different podcasts that they hosts.
And, um, they, I guess in exchange for putting their name on your podcast, they, um, they, uh, Right. Your paycheck. So
Dan Blewett: that’s the American dream. I mean, I think that’s like the new American dream is grow up, have a podcast get paid to do it. And then I don’t know. What’s after that, Bob, what happens after that retire?
That’s where you peak, I guess. Yeah.
Bobby Stevens: That’s where I’m, that’s where I’m peaking.
Dan Blewett: Well, and so go ahead, bomb.
Bobby Stevens: I’ll just say, so we’ve got a lot of wide ranging topics, but. First and foremost baseball playoffs starts today. Ryan, I saw you put a put on an article, uh, write what you thought your post-season picks and like many people on Twitter when I went to it, it crashed.
So you’re, you’re following bumrushed your website, but what do you, what do you see for this 2020 post season? The, the craziness of quarantine baseball.
Ryan Spaeder: So, uh, the [00:03:00] first thing that I will say it is, I kind of took the lazy way out, but because I don’t know if it’s like an arrogant thing of mine where I don’t have to justify my picks.
I just straight up listed my picks. And then I felt really awful because I have a. Uh, somebody who was a friend of mine back when I was bartending. Um, her name is Meg Waldron and she’s been writing for me and she’s been doing a fantastic job. And then she went ahead and put this together. This extremely well thought out piece.
She broke down every single matchup, all the way to the world series and picking her world series champion, which was the Cleveland Indians. Uh, the only one that she didn’t. Do you have any analysis on what was the, um, game? Uh, excuse me, the, I guess, what are we calling it? The first round where the Dodgers and the brewers are playing each other and her analysis on that one was the Dodgers were 43 and 17.
And that was it. I thought that was pretty funny,
Dan Blewett: but for
Ryan Spaeder: me, for me, she, and it made me feel bad about myself because he. I’m [00:04:00] supposed to be the host of this website. Right. And I, all I did was put out my picks and like you said, it did end up crashing my website, upgrade via the website, cost me $528 and 10 cents so that I can, um, uh, host more clicks at one time.
I’ve only ever had that happen. One other time, uh, with an article I had written called, uh, Walter Johnson, probably through 88 miles an hour. Wow.
Dan Blewett: That’s amazing. I’m going to get back to that later.
Ryan Spaeder: Yeah, but I’m so yeah, I just posted my pics and uh, I mean, my intention was to break them down on my show, which I did a little bit.
I, I went on a show in Chicago recently. I broke my pics down there as well, but, um, I kind of, uh, went in a different direction from what. I believe this type of post-season structure will be in the future. Um, specifically I had both sevens advancing. I had the blue Jays over the res. Um, if you [00:05:00] guys want, I’ll get into the pics with you, but my, my biggest thing with this postseason schedule and, uh, there’s very few things that I’m going to take away stance on where, uh, I try to act in humility, you know, it’s how I was raised and everything, but I’m going to tell you right now, This postseason model is mine.
I came up with it a year ago and major league baseball, poached it and use their, their own. I have a friend who’s in the front office with, uh, Atlanta, and he told me that this, this stuff happens all the time. They poached from nobody’s like me. Um, the seven and eight double header thing, for example, came from somebody.
Just on Twitter and the Manford administration ran with it. But if you look on it’s actually a year ago today, I wrote an article saying that a major league baseball should expand the postseason house. Here’s how they should do it. And I’m basically word for word that’s what we’re doing here. So, um, I’m, I’m taking all the credit, whether it’s mine or not, I’m taking it
[00:06:00] Bobby Stevens: or congrats.
Dan Blewett: So there’s a lot of pushback on that. I mean, so I guess the common question is why do we play so many dang games? Like, why do we play 162 games then just to let everybody in the playoffs. So how, how would you respond to that? So
Ryan Spaeder: it’s, it’s funny you say that because a year ago I was dealing with, with this question and, um, first of all, the value of it, number one, seed this season.
Is not quite there. It’s not what it’s going to be in the future future. And that is a home field advantage for a number one seed, presumably a hundred plus one. When team over that had been number eight seed, presumably an 81 to 84 wind team. Um, you’re talking about. A team that is going to win this series in even the Ray’s case, a full house, um, in a normal situation, they’re going to win this series 83 to 90% of the time.
That is what that home field advantage is. Now that home field advantage of course, is not [00:07:00] here this year. Now the one glaring difference between the man model and my model is I called for receding based on record alone, um, this year, what they are doing. Is there seating based on finishing the division?
I think that was the good, um, the best idea this time around because 6,700 incentive match-ups came against division opponents versus less than 50, over the course of a regular normal hundreds, 62 games season. However, in the future, when we use this model and it’s here to stay, but believe me, major league baseball will not reduce the number of playoff games.
And if, um, I’m wrong. I’ll come back on the show and I’ll eat Crow, but they absolutely will not reduce the number of games. And in the future, they will shift 100% to what I’m going to call the Spader model. And they’re going to recede based solely off the, um, the record and, uh, that of seeing the white Sox as a number seven seed this year, I think they would have [00:08:00] fallen in as a number three and that’s, I just really feel that’s what we’re going to see in the future.
Uh, As for why do we play 162 games? Well, again, the value that number one seed is so huge. The value of the number two and the three and the four is so much greater than that, of the five, six, seven, and eight. Um, I think the big yes thing, the biggest pushback that I received was, Oh, it takes away from the value of the regular season.
And I truthfully, I just, I don’t see that. I don’t, I don’t really hear that argument. Baseball is meant to be about this. Um, This grueling schedule. Right? And we come to this thing, the postseason, and however many times have we seen, um, a team like the Marlins, they twice won the world series of a wildcard team, the team, uh, the Cardinals in, uh, goodness.
I’m forgetting the year that they went 83 and 79, and then ran through the post season. We’ve [00:09:00] seen this happen before and people want to complain because, Oh, you know, a sub 500 team might make it here and there. Well, that’s going to happen. And if there are sub 500 team, they’re probably facing a one, and then they’re going to have to go through a grueling post-season schedule to even get to the world series, let alone win it.
And if you’re a 79 and 83 team, And you beat a one and then you put hammer through the postseason and then you win the world series. Well, damn it. You deserve to win the world series. And just because over the course of that 162 games you had, I don’t know, five, six, seven games where you couldn’t figure out who your closer was and you had this guy and that guy and everybody, and their mother in their blow and saves that would kept you out of the would have kept you out of the playoffs in a regular 162 game season.
Well, If you figure it out at the end, the last, I don’t know, it’s called two months of the season, and then you can put it together and then you can put a run together in the postseason. [00:10:00] I’m saying that that team deserves to win the world series a hundred percent because we look at that 162 game season and we say, well, why 160 to 100, a hundred.
Why not? 80, whatever. Well, the fact is. You have you look at the seasoning month spans right. First month, nobody’s got to figure it out. You got maybe one team who’s absolutely got the F there they are the team that they are going to be by the end of the season. First half of the season, really you’ve got teams figuring out they’re still trying to put together their roster.
They’re supplying with different lineups. Second half of the season after the team’s making trades, they’re decided whether or not they’re going to contend what they want to do. Uh, going forward here. Well, what I think we’re doing with this postseason model is we have a number of teams who are going to be competing for that eight, seven, six, and even five slot.
Right. And a team like going back to last year when I proposed this model, a [00:11:00] team like the diamond backs, right. Who are completely out of it with six weeks left in the season while they’re now in it. And that’s gonna keep their fans in it and that’s gonna keep their fans from shifts, I think from the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Arizona Cardinals.
And I think that’s what baseball’s goal here should be, is to, um, keep fans. Uh, of mediocre teams involved with the game as long as possible. And that’s what this model absolutely does because you have teams that otherwise wouldn’t be in the postseason there. You’ve got the white Sox, you’ve got the reds.
Um, you’ve got the Marlins. Uh, Cardinal’s, wouldn’t be in it. I mean, it could the list, it goes on. I don’t even think the, it, no, the Yankees would have made it this year, but then you got the astros’ all of these teams that otherwise wouldn’t have made it that are now there and all have a chance to world series championship.
And I think that in the end, whoever wins, it absolutely wins it. We never look at the, um, uh, what do you call it? The March madness tournament. [00:12:00] And you look at the champion at the end of that and say that our team didn’t deserve to win it.
Dan Blewett: Yeah.
Bobby Stevens: I think when the white Sox do, when we’re all gonna feel really good about it, because that’s, who’s going to win the world championship, the world series, your, your website’s still actually not loading up for me.
Ryan Spaeder: Ryan
Bobby Stevens: currently,
Dan Blewett: but
Bobby Stevens: I assume you chose, I assume he chose the white socks you had to.
Ryan Spaeder: So, uh, if you want to jump right to the world series, I’ll tell you I did actually choose the, uh, white Sox over the Padres in the world series.
Dan Blewett: Wow.
Ryan Spaeder: Go to give it a shot. Go ahead and give it a shot again though.
Bobby Stevens: Well, it’s, they’re obviously the best team in baseball and I don’t think there’s any question they’re better than the Dodgers and the Yankees.
I just think, you know, as the Chicago guy, and I don’t think there’s any question that they’re, they’re definitely better than the Cubs. If we can agree on that.
Ryan Spaeder: I don’t, I have a hard time saying that they’re the best team in baseball. However, I look at that team and I see a complete team. I [00:13:00] think the Padres are also a complete team.
If you look at that rotation one through five and for the first time in a long time, uh, maybe the first time ever a one through five is going to be very important in this postseason, because typically you’re looking at a four or even a three man rotation in a postseason, but a one through five is going to be important.
I’ve looked the white Sox and I see a complete team there. Bats are phenomenal. I mean, Tim Anderson fell off a little bit, I guess, at the end. But when you’re looking at a guy who missed nearly 20% of the games over the course of the season, and he still led the American league and runs, you look at Jose Abreu who, I don’t know what, 33, 34 years old had the best season of his career.
Now, of course you could say, Oh, it was over 60 games and what would he have done over the next hundred? Whatever we have to look at what we have. Jose Bray was on fire, Aboriginal RBI per game. Uh, and then you look at the, um, The bullpen, they have the best closure in baseball right now in column a, um, and in, um, what is the name?
Uh, gosh, Garrett. [00:14:00] CoachArt missing up his name. I feel badly. Um,
Bobby Stevens: okay. That’s okay. But you know, we know they’re so stacked. It’s hard to remember everybody
Ryan Spaeder: on the team. But this kid is kids pumping 102, never threw a minor league. Guinea. He was the first pitcher to
Dan Blewett: strike it.
Ryan Spaeder: Crocheting. Yeah, you’re right.
Thank you. First pitcher to strike out the first two big league batters he faced without ever having or without having faced a minor league, um, uh, batter since world war II. This is ridiculous what this kid is doing and he’s popping one Oh two and then the rotation is ungodly. They’ve got probably. When you look at just the numbers and just the names they might have.
Top three in terms of their one, two, three with, uh, uh and then pick your poison. And from there, honestly, because this, the rotation is, is, uh, second to none, I would say top to bottom, although I would probably, if now I took the white socks over the potters. I will say that, [00:15:00] but if the, um, white Sox and Padres were going to play a seven game series right now, I would take the Padres.
Over the white Sox. I think that the, uh, the run of the getting through this first round, the second round third round, and then finally the world series is what’s going to, um, leave the white Sox standing over the Padres. I think that they just have the durability that Padres may not have at this point.
Dan Blewett: So it’s interesting. You brought up crochet, you know, baseball’s changed so much. I mean, if this was 19. I mean, obviously we’re quite quite a ways away from 1980, but you know, like you would have never brought up a kid to pitch when starting pitching was so much a part of the game. Obviously it’s still a big or the game, but we’re much more reliever heavy than yeah.
I’ve never been. Right. So it’s interesting that you can just bring someone up like him. And he can do well, like Jerry Jordan Hicks a couple of years ago, it was the same way. You’re like, why would we bring a kid up from a ball? But then when they throw a [00:16:00] hundred plus miles per hour, it just seems like it can work.
I mean, so you’re chatting a little bit about on your other podcasts about relievers versus starters, and you think starting pitching is actually going to be more important this post season is that right? Yeah,
Ryan Spaeder: absolutely. I, so just to harp on that point that you’re making there, the major league baseball has seen a paradigm shift in the importance of pitching in terms of what is more important, starting pitching or relief, pitching a relief pitching is the single most.
Important part of this game, because those are the guys who are pitching in at this point, the sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth inning. I used the Phillies as his example because first of all, that’s my team. Uh, second of all, they are the prime example as to how important a bullpen is, right. They had a historically bad bullpen at a 7.03 earned run average.
That is the second worst, second worst in history. In fact, only to the 1930 Philadelphia Phillies. Again, keeping it in the family, I
Dan Blewett: guess. Yeah, there you go.
Ryan Spaeder: If [00:17:00] you look at the rest of their team, well, their rotation, they were 10th in terms of starting pitching, uh, earned run average. Every single team that was in the top 14 for starting pitching era, made the postseason except for the Phillies.
And then you look well, you’re like, okay, well, 10th is really not that good. Well, that team was fifth in Robinson scored and they finished three games below 500, maybe even four. What’s going on with it. Yeah, definitely difficult to do, but it really emphasizes how important a bullpen is and they gave Gerardi no weapons whatsoever, uh, to the point that he was bringing Wheeler out in man, I’m in Wheeler’s last start, he had 107 pitches and he was like, nah, I got nothing.
So go ahead and get back out there because you’re the best, what I’ve got available in terms of what I’ve got right now. And I’m. Okay. At this point though, postseason, typically what we see is a shift, even greater from starting pitching [00:18:00] to relief, pitching Andrew Millers, that prime example that we often use, the Indians were bringing him in the second inning.
They were bringing in the ninth inning. It didn’t matter. Right? But here we have a situation where you’re going to play potentially 12 games in 13 days. And if you’re starting pitching these guys who are getting the ball on. Probably three, four, three, four days arrests aren’t giving you you innings, then your bullpen is going to wear down pretty damn quickly.
And that’s one of the reasons why I think the, um, the reds are gonna have a lot of success because first of all, they have good starting pitching to begin with. But second of all, Bauer has been training himself to go on three days, rest for a very long time. And they finally gave him the ball in three days rest.
And the dude absolutely shoved eight innings, 12 strikeouts. I think he had one earned run. He became the first pitcher to have a dozen strikeouts on three days rest since Curt Schilling in 2001. [00:19:00] Now Curt Schilling did that on two days rest. However, in the game prior to that, He only pitched two innings because the, he backs famously had the lights.
Um, I guess they went out or whatever. And, um, the following day, July 19, 2001, Randy Johnson through seven innings had 16 strike out. It’s the most strikeouts by a relief pitcher in history. And then, uh, after another day rest, Curt Schilling was back on the bumper. And struck out a dozen. Um, but you know, it’s, it’s difficult to say, well, the account per shillings, um, uh, three days rest start, well, he only threw two innings while he also did it on two days rest.
So that’s pretty impressive as well. So I’m going to go ahead and say Bauer’s the first, since a shilling. And there was the first red, since I was in Rio in 1988. It’s just really impressive what Bauer did. And, um, I think he really put himself in a position to be. Somebody that the reds are going to lean on this postseason until he breaks.
[00:20:00] And unfortunately, I just think when you’re going three days, rest in it, day in and day out at this point, when you throw as maximum effort as he does, I mean, he’s grown the dude’s Groton every single pitch. It’s, it’s really fun to watch, but. I think eventually you’re probably going to break and you’re probably going to have a bad outing.
I don’t wish wish it on the guy, but I do think the reds are gonna make the NLCS. And, uh, I think that that series is probably going to go pretty deep, but I think the Padres are gonna beat the reds and the NLC. Yes. Hmm.
Dan Blewett: That’s interesting. I mean, and the thing with, to your point with, with Schilling. You know, even when you start a game and only go two innings, there’s a lot of pregame prep, obviously.
Like we were throwing quite a bit. You have a long pregame bullpen, you go out there like two innings for a starter as much during the two innings for a reliever. So yeah, even if you get yanked early, it’s still kind of a full day. Obviously two endings is not a full day, but yeah, that makes sense. And it’s funny, you talk about Randy Johnson who, you know, get like young kids today, like barely even know who he was, [00:21:00] but.
And then when you think about how effective Randy Johnson was, I mean, not effective dominant, he was, it just also lends some credence to like throw on this kid gear, crochet out there in the big leagues. Like he throws 102 from the left side, kinda little arm slot, just like slinging it. Right. So when you think about how terrifying Randy Johnson was, kind of explains how, like this kid can just jump up there and.
Do okay. In the major leagues, like just electric stuff and, you know, a hundred miles per hour from the left side plays, whether you got the experience or not, it seems like a, would you agree? Yeah,
Ryan Spaeder: absolutely. I’m sorry, I’m going to cut you off, but I, I, I agree completely. So the thing is not only that, and I think it was almost strategic with the white Sox did with him is that they didn’t even give a crochet.
They didn’t give him a chance to face big league hitters, but they didn’t give big league hitters a chance to face crochet up until the very end. So it was almost. Brilliant what they [00:22:00] did and saving his, his arm for the postseason. And to be honest, I noticed that I kind of surprised that they just didn’t, um, shelf inventory, all the postseason.
Uh, it would have been incredibly impressive to see ’em crochet, uh, debut in the postseason. Um, or even later if they should, they get through the first round and not need them. Uh, at that point, I think we had, what was it when they’re Royals? We’re in the world series, you had Adam Bartow or Raul Monda, C, whatever his name of the day is.
And, uh, he was, he debuted in the world series becoming the first player. Did they view. During the world series, since I think it was like 1880 or something. And, uh, back then the world series wasn’t even a real game. It was just like an exhibition thing might as well been a spring training game. So, uh, it just, the fact that crochet is where he’s at and I feel awful for calling them.
I coach art, but, um, uh, the fact that he’s wearing it at this stage is [00:23:00] extremely impressive. And to be honest, I’m going to be extremely disappointed if he’s not, um, Not on that team to start next season. If they’d just go ahead and shove him the miners, especially if he has a success here. Well, the,
Dan Blewett: the thing you just don’t want to send a guy back where he’s not going to progress.
Like some guys like Kevin, Gossman, Jake Arietta guys with like incredible stuff. It’s almost like they’re just going to go back and dominate the minor leagues. So why bother sending them? They’re like, they just need to get their wings at the big league level. And of course it’s like Trevor, Bauer’s a guy like that too.
I’m personally not a big fan of him, but he just dominated the minor leagues to the point where it’s like, okay, He just needs to get his reps here in the big leagues. Even if he struggles for a little bit, he just still needs to get his reps in the big leagues. So it seems like crochet is probably gonna fit that bill where like, what’s the point of sending him back down to AA, you know, he’s already proved up proven you can punch out big leaders, even if he’ll probably for sure have some Rocky points, you know, sooner than later.
But, but yeah, it seems like he just got big league stuff and that’s where he needs to be. I [00:24:00] agree
Ryan Spaeder: with you completely. And I’m on a guy like Bauer and pitching in the minor leagues and you brought up Arietta Arietta of course struggled with the orals. And then he took off when he hit the Cubs. I think that that’s where bigly coaching comes into play when you’re a.
Honest, when you’re a young guy who has very little professional experience, I’m here, I’m preaching to the choir with you guys. But when you’re a young guy, um, who has very little professional expense and you’re on a big league roster, you need a pitching coach, right. And a manager who can help you grow, not just maintain you, not just maintain your skills.
And in Ariana’s case, he didn’t have that. He wasn’t even able to. Yeah. Throw his cutter, I believe, um, in find a Bobby got to the, yeah.
Dan Blewett: Yeah. Bobby, Bobby, Bobby loves the Orioles and their development.
Bobby Stevens: Well, he’s not, he’s not the only one. Dylan Bundy was also had his cutter scrapped, which was arguably
Dan Blewett: as best pitch.
Ryan Spaeder: And
Bobby Stevens: now he’s with the angels and having a good year by all accounts. I mean, he always [00:25:00] had a great arm, but we had Rick Peterson. If you remember Rick Peterson from the. Moneyball days. So he came in as like a, he came in Adam, I forget what year when I was with the Orioles and totally outside the box, pitching thoughts and changing routines of guys and changing how they’re changing their structure in spring training.
And that was a year. A lot of guys got hurt, maybe it’s to attribute to what he does. Maybe it’s not, you know, coincidence what have you, but they’re the Orioles always. It. You know, guys like Jake Arietta should be successful everywhere. They go
Dan Blewett: with the type of stuff he has
Bobby Stevens: and the fact that he, they could not bring it out of them is, is damning
Dan Blewett: honestly, for the organization.
Like you,
Bobby Stevens: you have this prize piece that you can’t get, especially in his prime. I mean, he was technically in his prime, his whole Orioles career, and then he went to the Cubs and it on the tail end of his [00:26:00] prime obviously had the historic run. It’s just it’s, it’s damning for an organization that had so many young, talented pitchers, uh,
Dan Blewett: that have gone on success.
Bobby Stevens: Curt Schilling, Zach Brittney was successful with the Orioles, uh, Brian Mattis, who came up and just
Dan Blewett: was very, very good as
Bobby Stevens: a, as a rookie. And then just
Ryan Spaeder: fell off.
Bobby Stevens: I mean, you have guys that should have been established big leaders for your organization for years, that just ended up going either somewhere else to have success.
So they just petered out.
Ryan Spaeder: Yeah. And it’s really disappointing to see, um, the way that, I mean, it’s not just the Orioles, you see countless number of, um, of teams deal with the same thing. And then it, I mean, you look at it like I’m in area at his case. It’s like the dudes, like. Uh, he’s got so much juice in it.
He’s such a big league pitcher. It’s such a stud and it’s a shame that you missed out on this prime seasons. It’s like the Orioles had this, uh, you know, this ripe [00:27:00] orange, right. And all they had to do is peel it and instead they threw it away in the Cubs. Go ahead and pick it up. They appeal it. And then all of a sudden he’s the best pitcher in baseball.
And he was the best pitcher in baseball for an extended period of time. He had a stretch there. Uh, I want to say, and I’m going off to some of these numbers. I go at the top of my head, so I may miss, uh, to the left or the right by a game, but he had a stretch of a, I want to say 34 games where he had to no hitters to just one game lost.
That’s how good of a talent at that man was. And now of course, he’s a shadow of his former self. And you look at that, that he had, and you’re like, Oh, it was such a small way. No, was it a fluke? No, it wasn’t a fluke. It was because the Orioles weren’t getting out of him, what he was capable at a younger age, the guy missed out on his prime seasons when he was 25, 26 years old.
And. You look at that career that he’s had, and it’s, it’s been a stellar career. Of course he wasn’t what the Phillies had hoped. But you look at the career that he’s had and realized that it [00:28:00] probably should have started sooner than it did. And it just didn’t because their development stops in the minor leagues.
You’ve got to have these, these coaches who were capable of developing into the big leagues, look at what they Astros do. For example,
Dan Blewett: Yeah, well I’m I guess the, what a pitcher’s prime is. I’ve heard that it’s like 27 to 31 32. I maybe Brian, you probably honestly know better than I will. What, what do you, what do you think is the, the big league in your prime?
Ryan Spaeder: I put no stock in any of that. I think it varies from guy to guy, none, none whatsoever. Um, I think some, some guys you get this, uh, proverbial flash in the pan who. At 21, 22 years old, they’re absolute studs. And then all of a sudden nothing. Right. And then you get guys who don’t figure it out until they’re 31 years old.
Um, and then you get guys who are, uh, By all accounts throwers early in their account and they are early in their [00:29:00] career and they can get guys out by throwing and then they keep trying to do that and they keep trying to do that. And then they fail and they fall on their face and then they realize they’ve maybe they get a coach who finally can get through them and be like, dude, you can’t do this anymore.
You gotta be a pitcher. And then they figure it out and they are even better in the second half of their career than they were in the first half after they fell on their face for a season or two.
Dan Blewett: Yeah, well, and Arietta, it’s interesting. I’m looking at his stats, so I haven’t pulled up right now, but you know, he was stellar from 28 through 31 with his incredible seasons being at 29 and 30.
Um, yeah, he’s a guy where you could see bigly coaches or just coaches in general, wanting to change him. I mean, anytime you, as a pitcher, you have like this unorthodoxy in your emotion and he steps way across his body. He’s got some kind of like little hitchy things in there. Every pitcher. Every, every pitching coach said, Oh, if we could just with him out, he’ll throw 106 now, like, you know, I’ll have an even more turbo slider.
It’s just like at certain points you have to step back and say, well, maybe even though [00:30:00] this is unorthodox, this is just how this dude’s body moves. And we should kind of just like fine tune him, but mostly leave him alone. And it seems like that’s what
the
Ryan Spaeder: Cubs did. So I think a lot of times, and I think that this is something that’s practiced by our drive line guys with Kyle body, for example.
And I’ve talked to him about it a number of times and everything specific to what you’re talking about right there is working with what you have instead of trying to change what you have. Um, like the, I created and you said smooth him out, right? W what the hell does that mean? You, you have a guy who has a.
God given talent and ability to work, and you want to change that. Why would you not want to instead try to perfect that by working with what you have? And it seems like you’ve got two schools of thought and you guys would know a hell of a lot better than I do, but we’ve got two schools of thought. You either get a coach who is going to say, okay, I had a, you know, a price piece [00:31:00] here, let me shine.
It. Or then you have the other coach who has that. All right. I have a price. Let me paint it. Right. And in the case of Arietta with the orals, he was painting well, when he went to the Cubs, he was shined. And that’s what you saw in his sight. Young season.
Dan Blewett: Yeah, I think it’s a good analogy. I think part of the thing is, um, you know, and you’re a little bit more in like a, I think you’re a little bit in this, like the sports betting world, like obviously you’re always forecasting, you know, world series picks all that stuff.
Forecasting. Anything is hard and we’re not very good at, at it as a species in general. And so when you look at a guy like Jake Arietta and Bobby and I have a, a friend, a former teammate who name was wind Pelzer. He had a very short stride and when super athletic dude at a university of South Carolina drafted by the, uh, the, I think the Rockies and Padres and the oils, but super short strikes, like to the point where you’re like, Oh, if we could just, if we could just lengthen out his stride and you know, every, everyone tried to do that.
And when just naturally moved [00:32:00] really, really well. If you’re 95 back when 95 was when it was really hard, um, that’s just the way he moved and everyone was trying to tinker with him everywhere. He went and it’s just like, get off me. Like just let me be what I am. But at the same time, I think a lot of us as pitching coaches are like, Hey, I’m just trying to look out for you five years from now or 10 years from now because you know, Jake Arietta striding so far across his body.
That’s something that probably for most pitchers is going to lead to extra stress on their body, extra this extra, that, and maybe they should break down where then 10 years. You’re like if only we had cleaned that up earlier, it was pretty obvious. Like, why didn’t we do that? So I think that’s where, you know, you kind of like second guess yourself and you want to, you’re just trying to forecast and say, could we fix this now?
And maybe they don’t have problems in the future. So that’s kind of like the devil’s advocate side of it there, but I think you’re right. At some point you just need to look at people and say, this just seems like. How this guy moves and we should probably leave it
Ryan Spaeder: alone. Well, [00:33:00] just the last thing that I’ll add to that is I think that the best coaches in the best systems are ones who look at pictures as individuals versus in this, it goes against the, uh, the grain, I guess, because I, you know, being a numbers guy, I should look at this statistically, but I, I don’t look at everything through the vein of numbers.
And I think the best systems are the ones who look at an individual versus saying, Okay. Pictures most of the time. Well, let’s look at Jake. Arietta not pitchers. Most of the time let’s look at him. Let’s break him down by mechanically. Is this something that’s feasible to continue going on? And in his case, was it not?
I don’t know. I guess time will tell he’s kind of fallen off the Phillies. He doesn’t have that same fastball anymore, but is that just age? You know, there’s so many questions then to be asked, but I think that again, the. The best systems are going to look at individuals and train [00:34:00] that individual versus training groups of, um, groups of pitchers as a whole.
Dan Blewett: Yeah. And with Arietta the other thing is he already was like, his output was already exceptional, right? So at TCU and then in the minors and in the big leagues, he was already. Throwing like 96 with crazy everything. So at that point you’re like, well maybe yeah. The way he moves, which is weird, is good for him.
You know, at that point, like he’s, he’s done everything. Whereas for me, working with a young pitcher, If they stride away across their body and they kind of pitching, it’s like, maybe that’s part of the reason that you suck. Right. Whereas with Arietta it’s like, maybe that’s the, the reason he’s just good.
Like he just, you know, he does that really well. I mean, Bob, you’ve seen some amazing athletes. I mean, were there any other guys that stuck out like that for you who are just, this guy is so good, so good. He probably. It’s probably not in spite of this it’s or it probably is in spite of this instead of, or maybe it’s because of this, not in spite of it.
Bobby Stevens: Yeah. I mean like a guy that sticks out in the minor leagues as a [00:35:00] hitter anyways, was like Evan Gattis. So I haven’t Gaddis just, I mean, for anyone who doesn’t know his backstory, go read it. It’s
Dan Blewett: he just out of baseball
Bobby Stevens: comes back into baseball with the Braves jumps into aye. Aye. Played against them in high a
Ryan Spaeder: and teammates with them in AA.
Bobby Stevens: And it’s like, couldn’t get the guy out. Totally unorthodox, like no batting gloves, open stance, no undershirt. I mean, you’re just like just a bear who is given a log, hold the, hit this thing coming at him and he would hit it a mile. And it was, he, he basically made us, made it to the big leagues and like a year and a half.
And if you were as a hidden as a kid. Yeah. As a hidden coach, I mean, he looked like bam, bam from the Flintstones. True. And as a hitting coach, you’re probably watching, thinking change everything. Like this guy could be really good, but
Ryan Spaeder: he’s already good.
Bobby Stevens: He’s already a guy that dominates is already
Ryan Spaeder: getting hits
Bobby Stevens: and that’s, you [00:36:00] know, You have to balance that.
I think as a, as a professional coach, as an organization, you’ve got to look at guys that are successful and you’re either going to ride their wave of success, or you’re going to try and put a bump in the road to hopefully get more success later on. But at that point, it’s at least in my opinion,
Ryan Spaeder: he only
Bobby Stevens: knows one way and
Dan Blewett: it’s successful.
Ryan Spaeder: Let
Bobby Stevens: him ride that out. I mean, guys are, you know, they, they always talk about like, I’d like to gram and send the guard that they’re going to blow out. Like their arms are going to blow out. They can’t sustain this, you know, this philosophy, but at this point,
Dan Blewett: like
Bobby Stevens: they’ve gone this far.
Ryan Spaeder: If
Bobby Stevens: you’re going to tweak something, who’s to say, it’s going to be better.
Like, there is nothing to say, it’s going to be better. It’s your theory. You have a theory. Just let them ride it out. I mean, to Graham. By all the rounds, the best pitcher in the major league baseball, I think in my opinion, he’s unbelievable. And you know, Ryan, I’d like to hear some stats on
Dan Blewett: a few. You have
Bobby Stevens: any, but it just, just as a, as a guy who doesn’t know [00:37:00] pitching mechanics very well, you know, for someone to even want to tinker with what he does as a,
Dan Blewett: as a
Bobby Stevens: Bailey pitcher, it seems absurd to me.
Okay. Do you have anything on the ground, Ryan? As far as
Ryan Spaeder: stat wise? I do. And let me pull it up now, but just while I do the last thing that I want to say is, um, on T on these guys who can be unorthodox, right? Uh, I look to a guy like a hundred pens, a hundred pens, 37 years old, just retired he’s as unorthodox as it gets.
Right. But the fact of the matter is he got the ball or excuse me, the bat to the ball as fast as just about anybody. Right. It was unorthodox. He didn’t look pretty. But that, is it a case where that man just, he just hit, he just flat out raked, leave it be right. If that was a case where, okay. His swing was long and his bat was getting, um, wasn’t getting to the, uh, his barrel.
Wasn’t getting to the zone quick enough. Then yeah, that’s maybe where you start refining, but his [00:38:00] bat was as quick as possible. So why would you change that? Um, but just to get to, to your point on, uh, the grom. Absolutely. Uh, these are some numbers that I haven’t updated in a bit. So I’m going to give them to you, uh, with the dates.
I’m sorry, I didn’t have them prepped for you, but, um, To Graham with, uh, on August 31st. So excluding this month he had, um, since 2018, he had 51 total games where he had one earned run or more. In those games, he was 14 and 18 with a 2.81 year. That is ridiculous. You’re 14 and 18 and engaged with 0.81 era because you allowed one.
Yeah. That poor sob, you gave up a single run and he was like, I’m probably going to lose this game now. I was a terrible, terrible psyche for a pitcher to have. And yeah, overcame that so many times that same day I put out another fact [00:39:00] in victories, 71 starts over his last three seasons. Excluding September, of course, in victories, 23 of them, 1.09 era in the games.
He did not win 48 of them. 2.51 era with an O and 18 record. It’s ridiculous. How good of a pitcher Jacob Graham is? And I think what is understated with him is the fact that, uh, and you guys would know a hell of a lot better than I do, but, uh, I’m I talk with, uh, Lance McCullers jr. All the time. You guys should have him on your awesome, awesome dude, Mitch Harris.
So I’m friendly with a lot of these pitchers who have had a lot of success. You guys are all freaking head cases, right? If you’re on the bump and you know that you lose most of the games that you give up, one earned run and you give up a home, run to the second batter of the game. That’s got a mess with your head, man.
And Dick rom, somehow managed to over, manages to overcome that you don’t [00:40:00] see him go up and give up two first, uh, runs. And then get shelled the rest of the game. That dude shuts it down. He’s hands down. One of the most impressive pictures I’ve ever seen, if not, for his ability to overcome those circumstances that the nets have put him in, where they’re sitting, not scoring runs for him.
He dominated it’s whether or not that team is scoring, whether they give him 10 runs, which very rarely they do. Whether or not, they give him two runs or no runs. It doesn’t matter. He is the best hands down. And I’m the last, the last number that I have on him. And gosh, I don’t want to mess this up. And, but if he had gotten at least hold on, I want to get this right.
So I don’t want to give you a phony numbers here, but had he gotten, um, Oh, man, I can’t find it. I, so I’ll give you a, um, an estimate. It was his first saw [00:41:00] young year. Had he gotten at at least three runs of support per game? He would have finished something like 27 in one.
Dan Blewett: Well, it’s unbelievable. It’s
Bobby Stevens: insane.
It’s honestly, it’s just an
Ryan Spaeder: is, it’s just,
Bobby Stevens: that’s just the mats in a nutshell, right? Like the, what could, what could it be? I’ve been with that rotation. They had a couple of years ago with, uh, Syndergaard to Graham was a Wheeler mats. Uh, I mean they just, they had a bolt, they had some bullpen arms. Why, why, why are they not better?
I don’t understand. I just. Is that an organizational thing, Dan, is that, is that just the Mets? Like, are they just the little brother of the Yankees and they just
Ryan Spaeder: can’t seem to get it right.
Dan Blewett: I mean, I think cultural stuff can just sort of last somehow where guys expect to lose, even at high levels, it doesn’t seem like it’d be like that.
Cause everyone in the big leagues is competitive, if not for their team, but for themselves, like every wants to stay there. Right. And they don’t want to get the motive. [00:42:00] I mean, there’s a fight, no matter what it is, but I don’t know, but they just seem to be perpetually. Bad. And it’s not just bad, but it’s just like, there’s something off there and it’s hard to know what that is.
It’s you feel it? And I’ve played on losing teams almost my whole career. So I kind of understand what that is. It’s hard to put your finger on it. Um, but they have it. I don’t know where just you kind of each kind of just expect to lose you kind of expect to roll over you kind of. Mentally, like Ryan said, let down, when you lose the lead or give up something early, you just kind of go to sleep.
And I think that can be just a flu that sticks with you as an organization, but Ryan, to your point. I think probably, and this is probably part of why to Gramma so good. The best pitchers. They don’t see the game at seven innings or nine innings. They, they do a really super job at breaking it down, not just in, by inning, not just hit her by hit or not just out by out, but each individual pitch.
And [00:43:00] so deGrom is probably just exceptional at saying I’m making this one pitch right now to the best of my ability. Then it’s over with now. My only job is to make this one pitch to the best of my ability. He makes it now, my job is still to make this one pitch. And when you do that, suddenly 98 pitches have gone by and you throw in a gym and you’re like, Oh, how’d I get here?
And I know this because I struggle with this a lot as a starter in college and an early in, in pro ball, I was like, how am I? My arm feels terrible. Like, I’m struggling. How am I going to get through seven innings? Or you start to think about your era. You’re like, I, you know, I don’t want to get released.
My ear is at 4.5. If I give up X amount of runs today, I’m going to be at a five. And so then you’re like, alright, I gotta throw five scoreless innings today. It’s really hard to do a lot of it’s out of your control. But then when you start saying, okay, all I got to do is make one good pitch. Then everything just gets so much easier, but it’s just really hard to do that.
It’s really hard to do that. And I would just imagine that he’s exceptional at tuning, all the [00:44:00] other stuff out and just, he’s a one pitch pitcher. For a hundred pitches every game, and he’s just exceptional blocking it out. That’s my guess with him.
Ryan Spaeder: I got nothing to add. I think you put it perfectly. I think that’s exactly what it is.
Dan Blewett: Yeah. Well, and it’s, it’s hard. So, so my best season of my career, you know, actually in Camden, New Jersey, well, so I’m sure you’re familiar with that ballpark. Um, I, uh, we were a bad team and I was the setup, man. So I pitched every time with a one run lead or it was tie game and I was pitching the ninth. So.
There was a lot of pressure. And you knew if you didn’t, you could give a run, you basically get a loss. So at the end of the year, my, I had a 1.8 era and a one and five record. Cause like the five times I gave a run, I got a loss. But at the same time, that was the best I’d ever pitched. That was the peak of my career because I was really comfortable being a reliever for the first time.
My stuff was good. I trusted it. I came in there and were just very mentally focused on just making pitches and I only had to do it for one inning. So I just had to make a pitch, make a [00:45:00] pitch, make a pitch, and the score be damned, you know, and all that other stuff I’ll be damned. And I just made a pitch.
And for me that was, that was really easy. That was easier to do it. One in experts. It was really good, hard for me to do mentally for seven innings at a time. So I think that’s just coming down to some guys are mentally tougher than others and better blogging stuff out. Some guys are just way better as starters, like to block that out for seven straight endings or nine straight innings.
It is tough, but some guys can do it really well for one thing. So I know what it’s like to be on a bad team like that people were like, how are you? One in five?
Ryan Spaeder: I’m like you
Dan Blewett: have a five runs. I don’t know. I
Ryan Spaeder: don’t know.
Dan Blewett: I assume me,
Ryan Spaeder: but,
Dan Blewett: and hitting’s the same way. I mean, Bobby, it’s so tough. I’m sure to, and that’s why I think just being in the big leagues is so hard and it’s, and it really is weird when you look at Jake, Arietta where you’re like.
What, what fell off for him? Like how did he, how did he go from one 77 to three 10 then how did he go from three, 10 to four, six, four, three years later. I mean, Ryan, do [00:46:00] you see anything like glaring with him of confluence of factors I’d guess, but what do you see?
Ryan Spaeder: Biggest thing I saw with him was just the velocity fall off.
But I don’t, I don’t know. I, I truly, I wish I had the answers for you, but, um, uh, once, sometimes once the velocity goes, yeah, guys, all of a sudden your off-speed stuff, doesn’t fold them quite as much or you’re, um, you’re breaking stuff or you’re cutting stuff. Doesn’t quite follow them quite as much when, when you give guys a millisecond more and I’ll have to tell you, but you.
These guys use it. There’s an old saying that, um, what is it good at hitting a baseball is actually impossible to do. It’s impossible to see ball hit ball, right? It’s all predictive analysis that your brain conducts as the ball’s coming at. You, you see the, you see the ball being released and your brain, your body.
Is guessing where it’s going to be it’s and some guys just have the ability to do that. Me personally, I didn’t, especially when it was over like [00:47:00] 85, but it’s, it’s just predictive analysis that you’re you’re, um, conducting. And when you’re allowing somebody, uh, additional time to conduct that predictive analysis by throwing two, three, four miles an hour, uh, softer, I suppose.
Uh, I think that that’s where you start to see things falling off. Now I look at cases where guys, uh, Hendrix, for example, with the Cubs, who’s had a lot of success without the velocity. Well it’s because nobody knows where the hell is. Pitches are moving, right? And you can’t conduct that. You know, that quote unquote predictive analysis has a pitch coming at you.
And that’s how he’s getting swings and misses or bad contacts.
Dan Blewett: Yeah. And it seems like you just have to, not every pitcher can make that adjustment. And to your point, like, so my last season I got, I got hit really, really hard and I was a little bit hurt, just enough where I could still pitch, but not enough where I had the same velocity I was down like probably two miles per hour.
And I think my spin rate was down personally. And [00:48:00] the issue with that is by time you realize you’re different, like. As a pitcher, you’re saying, alright, even if I get shelled today, I’m not going to like throw my hands up and change everything for tomorrow. Like even a Jake area’s, you know, amazing season.
He had some bad starts. You have a bad start. You don’t just change everything for the next one. You say, okay, that’s a fluke. You know, I’m going to stick to my routine and do it again next time. But once you string three or four of those that are bad together, sometimes there’s might be something actually wrong and you might actually need to change.
And now maybe, you know, you have a down season. It’s hard to know, like, okay, my stuff was down this year. You’re a little bit, do I need to change now? Do I need to change now? Do I need to change now? Okay. And it’s almost like you put the frog in the cold water pot, right. You slowly turn up the heat and he boils before he realizes it.
But if you throw the frog in the pot, when it’s hot, he pops right back out. Right? No, I think for a lot of these pitchers as they lose a mile per hour this year. Sure. And then a mile per hour next year. And then, uh, I realize that they actually have to change the way they pitch because they’re no longer a flame thrower because [00:49:00] they.
The difference between flame thrower and average thrower was such a slow degradation. And so maybe it’s just guys like Kyle Hendricks figured that out fast, or they’re like, I need to change. Now. I can see my future. I need to completely change the way I pitch. I need to pitch backwards more. I need to throw more breaking balls.
I need to throw more two, one change ups. Whereas the other guys who were power pitchers, maybe they just, they don’t see the impetus to change that fast. And I know for me, that was the case. My last season, I was like, okay, Um, I just had a bad outing. I just had about adding and then like seven bad outings later.
You’re like, I’m probably gonna get released now. Maybe I need to change now, but it’s too late. And you’re sitting in your ship is too full of water.
Ryan Spaeder: Then you also, uh, and this is Bob’s point, but the also then have these freaks, right? Like the Graham who he just ended a season where he had his hardest fastball ever.
And that’s like the, I think the fourth one fifth season in a row where his vocal velocity [00:50:00] increased and this season, he was over 97 on his average fastball. Now people who like,
Dan Blewett: Oh, you only through 12 starts
Ryan Spaeder: or whatever the hell he ended up throwing. But I don’t care. I’m impressed. That is ridiculous that this guy at this stage, in his career, 31 years old, and he doesn’t have the big league innings that a lot of 31 year olds have.
And that’s to his benefit perhaps in the future. But at this stage in his game, He’s still throwing the ball harder. He’s figuring out a way to do it to a way to get stronger. And I think that that lends itself to the importance of, um, conditioning off the field. Um, I think that we’ll just. I think it’s kind of been done away with, but when I was playing ball, for example, like 10 years ago, 15 years ago, pitchers, uh, with the idea that, Oh, I can’t lift weights.
Right? Get the hell out of here.
Dan Blewett: Yeah, absolutely.
Ryan Spaeder: Well,
Bobby Stevens: I know we want to wrap up here pretty quick, but I wanted to jump in real quick too. Just where, where you see some of these young guys, you know, baseball is [00:51:00] full of yet. We were talking off air Tim Anderson.
Dan Blewett: Um, obviously Mike trout
Bobby Stevens: has been the forefront of like
Ryan Spaeder: young players just dominating
Bobby Stevens: Fernando tots, East junior.
Who do you see, are these guys being on a hall of fame
Dan Blewett: type pace
Bobby Stevens: stat wise or any, is anybody sticking out to you other than maybe trout who’s notably has all the accolades already.
Ryan Spaeder: I wish I had an answer for, in terms of players, but I think we are going to see a complete overhaul as to what the requirement for the hall of fame is.
Um, I, I have been an advocate, I guess, against the current voting form. One of the things that I do on my website is, uh, every single year, when it’s hall of fame vote time, I poll former players, uh, former big league players who I believe as alumni should have a hall of fame vote. And I would love to take credit for the idea, but the idea was from Kevin nucleus, who, um, you know, of course was a red Sox.
Great. Wasn’t a hall of Famer. And didn’t get any hall of fame votes in fact. But, uh, he [00:52:00] was a great ballplayer. And now what he does is he owns his own a brewery and a group hug and everything. Yeah. Long a brew. And, um, when I spoke to him, yeah, it was like, you know, it’s kind of, I get invited back for the red Sox anniversary teams, I think, but I’ve kind of been cast away by baseball.
And I think a lot of these guys. Feel that way. These guys who were an all star, maybe two, three times. And, uh, they gave a lot to baseball. They gave their bodies their lives to baseball and, um, they made enough where they can pursue a different living, a different passion. In his case. And then baseball says, okay, you know, thank you.
That’s not too unlike what the military does, you know, thank you for your service. Well, see, on the flip side, right. In his case, um, I think that’s somebody who, you know, he has a lot to think about when it comes in a lot to offer when it comes to baseball and to who belongs into the baseball hall of fame.
And, um, I think that. That is something that [00:53:00] baseball should consider. Uh, I know it’s out of baseball’s hints to the hall of fame’s hands, but what the hell makes a guy because he has a bachelor of arts in journalism and spent 10 years covering baseball from high school baseball through college, through what makes that guy.
The expert. Right? What I personally, I applied for BBWI because I want to have a vote. I’ve convinced a number of guys to vote for who I think should be voted for whatever. And this is a whole nother thing. You guys don’t have to have me back for part two, because I love talking baseball with you guys, and we didn’t even get into it.
Most of the stuff that we respond to talking about,
Dan Blewett: well, we got where he went. Yeah.
Ryan Spaeder: Yeah, but the, um, the, I applied and they were like, um, I got denied and I was like, uh, okay. Why? Well, because baseball’s not your main source of income. Oh, okay. That’s the requirement to have a book for the hall of fame.
Yeah. Stupid. It has nothing to do with an expertise on the game. Right. But that’s where you want to hang your hat. That’s that’s who [00:54:00] deserves to have a hall of fame or a hall of fame vote the most, uh, prestigious hall of fame. In the world, in my opinion. But you’re saying that the requirement is that you have a BA in journalism, mean that you covered baseball from various points for 10, for 10 years.
And then, um, baseball is your main source of income. Okay. That’s really dumb in my opinion. And it needs to change and baseball players, alumni, Kevin nucleus, for example, Brett Boone, these guys who I talk to on a regular basis, the guys who are alive, fortunately and in the hall of fame deserve to have a say as to who goes into their hall of fame.
Now, just to get back to your original point as to who I think is going to end up in the hall of fame again, I think. The paradigm is going to shift in terms of what the requirements are. I don’t think we’re going to see a 300 pitcher. That’s 300 wind pitcher again, which was there quite a long time. Yeah.
We’re going to see few and far between guys get it 3000 hits [00:55:00] with the importance of, um, of a walk. Right. But I think there are a number of guys playing right now who will eventually make the hall of fame. And I think, um, one thing that’s going to be very interesting in the future is to see. How their hall of fame numbers are impacted by, and this season, the fact that they missed a hundred games in a hundred years, James, you know, you look over the course of a career, you say, yeah, well, you know, it’s not that much, right?
Well, over the course of 2000 games, that’s 5% of a guy’s career. That’s 10% of it, a guy’s career over the course of, um, of a thousand games. So yeah, it’s, it’s going to play a major impact and look at a guy recently inherited Banes who got into the hall of fame. Because he missed major accolades, which I don’t put any stock into.
Anyway, it’s a 3000 to me is just as arbitrary as 2,999. It’s just more, yeah. Statically pleasing number. Right. But he got into the hall of fame because he missed those accolades because of the strike in [00:56:00] 1981. And the strike in 1994 and 1995. Without that he would have had 3000 hits. He would have had a, I believe it was 400 home runs, maybe 300.
I can’t remember where he ended up on 99 there and then over 500 doubles, but didn’t get there. Fortunately, totally rooster that advocated for him. I personally would not have voted for Halla veins, but I never would tear down the guy he belongs there. I don’t. So who the hell am I to say? But
Dan Blewett: yeah, I mean, you’re right.
I mean, a hundred games from Mike trout could be the difference between 480 home runs and 500 like, Oh, certainly 600
Ryan Spaeder: could be the difference
Bobby Stevens: would be the difference of seeing him arguably the greatest player statistically of all
Ryan Spaeder: time.
Dan Blewett: Here’s a, here’s a forecast that I want, hear Ryan, what age does Mike trout retire?
Cause the dude looks like he’s just built like a brick, whatever. I mean. Does he make it to 42? What agency he retire?
Ryan Spaeder: I can’t project that. I have no idea.
Dan Blewett: He just looks durable, like just [00:57:00] durable. I mean, here’s, he’s built like a bulldog ads out
Bobby Stevens: before. You’re like with my trout, I feel like. So Dan’s point earlier, his game has changed a little bit going.
He like, he was a speed guy coming up. Like he was fast. He stole 40 some basis now he always had pop, but now he’s, I mean, he’s become a true. The most prolific power hitter in baseball, essentially. Like he, he is a Homer. He leads the league in home runs, you know, he is he’s toned down. His stolen basis is he’s kind of started the, I don’t want to say paced himself for the long haul, but he has changed a little bit over.
Over his career. Uh, at least to this point, it’s like 28, 29 years old,
Ryan Spaeder: but he was definitely
Bobby Stevens: more of a speed guy. Uh, more of a, I guess, guns blazing every game, you know, he’d always hustles on the first base and he plays the game the right way, what most consider the right way. But he’s definitely taken a little bit of a shift to more of a, uh, I don’t want to say [00:58:00] a less effort approach, but he’s more of a power guy, less of a speed guy now, which might play into his longevity.
You know, the wear and tear on his body.
Ryan Spaeder: Yeah.
Dan Blewett: Well, he had his 300, 300 home run this year, so he’s at three Oh two and you guys are right. I mean, he will probably get to at least 600 and he probably missed out on 35 home runs. Yeah, sure. At his pace. So, yeah, it’s a big Junko chunk of change, but Ryan, uh, we know we got to be sensitive of your time, but where can people follow up with you?
This is a great salt. We’ll definitely have to have you back on, but where can people continue to follow you? And, uh, Putting out there on the web right now,
Ryan Spaeder: everything for me is just the ACE of students there. I can’t even say my own damn name, the ACE of spades, S P H E D E R. Everything. You can find it at my website, my Twitter, all that stuff.
And again, I don’t really do this stuff for plugs. I just like talking baseball, good baseball people. So please have me back. We’ll do a part two and cover some of the stuff that we missed because we kind of went off on a tangent there. [00:59:00] But again, like I said, I know I knew this. I knew this would happen because as I often say, you know, I’m a ballplayer.
I just suck. Right? I’m not, I’m not a media guy. Like, you know, some of this other guys, some of them are really good, the dudes, but I just not the biggest fan of that, uh, that, uh, boys club, if you will, I’d rather hang out with you guys.
Dan Blewett: Well, I appreciate it. Yeah, it was a great, great talk. We appreciate you having me on, on, uh, yeah, we’ll definitely do this again.
Maybe in the, uh, in the playoffs, if you’re not too packed and we can see how many of your projections came true, or if you’re in despair at that point.
Ryan Spaeder: All right. Thanks. Uh, thanks a lot, gentlemen. You guys have a great day.
Dan Blewett: Alright. Take care, Ryan. And for everyone else out there, thank you for joining us on the morning.
Brush back, we will be back shortly. Bob, are we having a Friday show this week?
Bobby Stevens: We’re going to try if we don’t, we move to once a week starting next week, where we’ll have guys as interesting as Ryan on once a week and we’ll be live chatting while you guys are [01:00:00] watching, uh, the feed that Dan puts out.
Cause Dan is the tech guy.
Dan Blewett: Guys and gals, we’re gonna have some female guests as well as well. Yeah. So I think we’re probably gonna, um, we will let you know if you’re not on my email list, I would say definitely sign up, obviously follow up. We’ll put out any, um, any updates to the show’s format as we go on there, but to keep up to date, definitely, uh, Dan blue.com.
You can click to get on my newsletter in the upper right hand corner. Also put links in the show notes here today. So. Uh, I appreciate you guys being here with us. Um, yeah, really good to talk with Ryan Spader. He’s, uh, he’s super knowledgeable. It seems like he’s a really deepen and wide knowledge of stats and the game and all that stuff.
Bobby Stevens: He is gambling a lot of good info. I mean, just scrolling through his website a little bit,
Ryan Spaeder: even
Bobby Stevens: while I was talking, it was. There’s so much here. He dives into so much. He also has something,
Dan Blewett: uh,
Bobby Stevens: called the Semper fi fund because [01:01:00] he is a,
Dan Blewett: uh, or Marine former
Bobby Stevens: Marine. So he’s he does, he does some cool things with some baseball stuff.
Um, current and former players to Centrify fund, uh, fundraiser for.
Dan Blewett: Um,
Bobby Stevens: to support post nine 11, combat wounded, critically ill, catastrophic injured members of, of
Dan Blewett: the armed forces.
Bobby Stevens: So he’s got a lot of good stuff. Definitely check it out. The ACE of spader.com. Um, check them out on Twitter. I’ll post it in the show notes when we post the, we post the show on the website.
Dan Blewett: All right, well, thanks again for being here. Be sure to subscribe, leave us a review. We would appreciate it. Episode 61. We’ve made it as such a big milestone for us. 61, Bob. Well,
Roger Maris.
This is our Roger merit. Is that pushing forward towards a hundred now? So, all right, we’ll see you here next week or next episode on the morning, brush back.
Bobby Stevens: See ya.